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Management of Uncertainty

Allan McRobie

globeThe environment is full of uncertainties, and one often needs to assess the risk of an event happening while taking full account of the limitations of the data available to you. I am very interested in this area of mathematics - risk analysis is after all the starting point for structural engineers in ascertaining how to design structures. What extreme wind speeds are likely to be encountered? How high will the flood waters reach? What magnitude will the largest earthquakes be?

The problem lies in trying to assess the low-probability-but-high -consequence conditions to design the structure for, when all that is available is short -term historical data about high-probability-but-low-consequence occurrences.The approach I am currently using (Bayesian methodology) suggests that the potential risks are far greater than current estimates acknowledge.

 

    Allan McRobie

 

Reader in Engineering

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