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Environmental Related Research | |
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| Home > Research > Environmental Related Research | ||
Management of Uncertainty |
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Allan McRobie |
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The problem lies in trying to assess the low-probability-but-high -consequence conditions to design the structure for, when all that is available is short -term historical data about high-probability-but-low-consequence occurrences.The approach I am currently using (Bayesian methodology) suggests that the potential risks are far greater than current estimates acknowledge.
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Reader in Engineering E-mail Other environmental projects: |
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The
environment is full of uncertainties, and one often needs to assess the
risk of an event happening while taking full account of the limitations
of the data available to you. I am very interested in this area of mathematics
- risk analysis is after all the starting point for structural engineers
in ascertaining how to design structures. What extreme wind speeds are
likely to be encountered? How high will the flood waters reach? What magnitude
will the largest earthquakes be?